Preseason Rankings
Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#286
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.0#99
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#240
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#315
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.5% 29.4% 18.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 12.8% 23.3% 8.3%
.500 or above in Conference 21.4% 30.2% 17.6%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.3% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 27.2% 19.5% 30.5%
First Four13.7% 15.7% 12.8%
First Round13.3% 20.0% 10.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Away) - 29.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.00.0 - 1.0
Quad 1b0.0 - 1.30.1 - 2.3
Quad 20.3 - 3.20.4 - 5.5
Quad 32.4 - 7.82.8 - 13.3
Quad 46.7 - 6.29.5 - 19.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 230   @ Abilene Christian L 73-76 30%    
  Nov 16, 2018 114   @ Grand Canyon L 68-78 11%    
  Nov 23, 2018 197   UNC Wilmington L 78-83 33%    
  Nov 24, 2018 298   Eastern Illinois W 70-69 53%    
  Nov 25, 2018 218   Gardner-Webb L 71-75 37%    
  Dec 01, 2018 185   @ Lehigh L 76-82 23%    
  Dec 04, 2018 196   Evansville L 65-70 44%    
  Dec 08, 2018 68   @ Minnesota L 70-85 7%    
  Dec 14, 2018 266   Florida Atlantic L 73-74 57%    
  Dec 18, 2018 190   Missouri St. L 68-74 42%    
  Dec 22, 2018 12   @ Syracuse L 57-79 2%    
  Jan 03, 2019 100   @ Louisiana L 72-83 11%    
  Jan 05, 2019 210   @ Louisiana Monroe L 69-73 28%    
  Jan 10, 2019 150   South Alabama L 72-80 34%    
  Jan 12, 2019 192   Troy L 72-77 42%    
  Jan 17, 2019 256   @ Texas Arlington L 77-78 36%    
  Jan 19, 2019 203   @ Texas St. L 66-70 27%    
  Jan 24, 2019 175   Appalachian St. L 74-80 40%    
  Jan 26, 2019 221   Coastal Carolina L 72-75 50%    
  Feb 02, 2019 264   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 69-70 37%    
  Feb 07, 2019 150   @ South Alabama L 72-80 18%    
  Feb 09, 2019 192   @ Troy L 72-77 25%    
  Feb 14, 2019 203   Texas St. L 66-70 46%    
  Feb 16, 2019 256   Texas Arlington L 77-78 55%    
  Feb 23, 2019 264   Arkansas Little Rock L 69-70 57%    
  Feb 28, 2019 85   @ Georgia St. L 67-80 10%    
  Mar 02, 2019 148   @ Georgia Southern L 72-80 19%    
  Mar 07, 2019 210   Louisiana Monroe L 69-73 47%    
  Mar 09, 2019 100   Louisiana L 72-83 26%    
Projected Record 9.5 - 19.5 6.1 - 11.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.1 0.8 0.1 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.2 1.7 0.1 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.8 2.3 0.2 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.3 3.2 0.4 0.0 11.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.4 4.3 0.7 0.0 13.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 3.9 6.0 3.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 15.8 11th
12th 1.2 3.4 5.7 5.3 2.5 0.6 0.0 18.8 12th
Total 1.2 3.5 6.9 9.7 11.3 12.1 13.1 11.3 9.4 7.8 5.1 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 96.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 71.6% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 42.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 101.8% 101.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 118.0% 118.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 108.9% 108.9% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.7% 74.4% 74.4% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
13-5 1.2% 77.1% 77.1% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3
12-6 2.3% 70.9% 70.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7
11-7 3.9% 60.8% 60.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.5
10-8 5.1% 50.0% 50.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.5
9-9 7.8% 39.1% 39.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.7 4.7
8-10 9.4% 28.6% 28.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.5 6.7
7-11 11.3% 24.0% 24.0% 15.9 0.0 2.7 8.6
6-12 13.1% 15.6% 15.6% 16.0 0.0 2.0 11.0
5-13 12.1% 11.5% 11.5% 15.8 1.4 10.8
4-14 11.3% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.7 10.6
3-15 9.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 9.5
2-16 6.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 6.7
1-17 3.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.5
0-18 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2
Total 100% 21.5% 21.5% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.7 16.7 78.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%